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Market Outlook
Updated weekly.  Last update:   May 2, 1999

     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 99.33, or 0.9%, last week; but it yielded to substantial intra-day profit-taking on Friday.  After a spectacular run over the past eleven weeks, the Dow is vulnerable to more profit-taking in the weeks ahead.  The Dow's monthly chart looks very bullish; however, its daily and weekly charts are flashing overbought signals.  This means we could see some sort of consolidation in the short-term.
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Short-Term Indicator

Weight

This Week

Last Week

Change

U. S. interest rates

12%

 

U. S. economy

7%

 

S & P 500 companies' earnings

10%

 

S & P 500 companies' valuations

10%

   

Technical indicators

12%

 

NYSE volume

6%

    

Bullish sentiment (contrary indicator)

12%

  

Bearish sentiment (contrary indicator)

12%

  

Mutual fund cash levels

6%

  

Market breadth

8%

  

World markets

5%

 

Overall

100%

  

  = bullish       = neutral       = bearish